There are more solutions then obstacles. Nicolas Zart
For the past 20 years, I’ve been watching the electric mobility dream take off. From electric vehicles (EVs) to electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL), eSTOL, and eCTOL alike, I witnessed them from concept to reality for the most part. Between the EV revolution and what we now call Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) there are fascinating parallels.
One thing we can be sure of one thing for 2026, the race between the top four or five eVTOL players will intensify. Short of this obvious tidbit, let’s dive into more details.
eVTOLs, From Concept to Commerciality
Seven years ago, headlines screamed that eVTOLs would flood the skies by 2025 hopping from building tops and landing on parking places. Uber Elevate promised air taxis everywhere. Eventually, Elevate served as a way to kick start the industry, if not, at least, to jump start the fertile minds of engineers newly freed from their internal combustion engine (ICE) constraints. The electric drive has unleashed a plethora of exotic designed not since since the birth of modern aviation over a century ago.
But behold, 2026 is the new “breakthrough year.”! Or so we’re told, again. And there is a lot of truth to this seemingly sensationalist claim. Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, BETA Technologies, Wisk, and Vertical Aerospace lead the pack, chasing FAA type certification and first revenue flights. But history shows timelines are notoriously difficult to predict and the we should take these exciting press releases with a modicum pinch of salt. Regulators need time to certify that these aircraft will fly safely over heads every hour, thankfully so. Batteries evolve over years, not weeks. Energy infrastructure lags and is no where ready to give the estimated 10 to 50 MW of electricity we will need reliably every day at 5 to 7 pm. Despite plenty of expert pr4edictions, no one can say exactly who will land commercial ops first.
So, let’s break it down without the crystal ball. Yes, I have a crystal ball. No, I don’t use it to see into the future. And if anyone can, let me know and we will split the profits.
The Big Three
Keep in mind that while today we talk of the big three, up until last year, we talked about the big four, and next year could easily become the big five. Having said that, these three dominate for good reason: deep funding, pilot deals, and cert progress. Joby flies passengers in Dubai pilots while nailing FAA stages. Archer ramps Midnight production for UAE routes. Vertical’s Valo eyes New York hops post-rebound. Yet past predictions flopped hard. In 2021, everyone picked Lilium or Volocopter for 2023 launches. Supply chains broke. FAA rules evolved. No one saw COVID or chip shortages coming. Even experts whiff—I’ve tracked this 20 years as a consultant and journalist. The real delays hide in unglamorous spots: power grids, vertiports, and resilient charging.
Here’s where they stand:
| Company | 2026 Goal | Energy Challenge | Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joby | FAA Type Cert + Dubai ops | Vertiport megawatt charging | Steady: DoD contracts, $1B+ cash |
| Archer | Midnight production scale | LA grid upgrades for fleets | Fast: UAE deals, but cert slips |
| Vertical | Valo NYC routes launch | Battery swap stations | Rocky: Near-bankruptcy, now rebounding |
Who’s missing? Ah, yes, BETA Technologies. BETA is the only AAM OEM that has two of its eCTOL aircraft operated by private operators. Not only that, but they have diversified early to tackle the thorny issue of infrastructure with a lineup of charging stations. Keep your eyes on the ball, especially the less vocal ones.
Joby hit FAA Stage 4 early, fly four-passenger tests, and lock defense work that funds civilian push. Dubai pilots mean real-world data fast. Archer moves quick too—Midnight’s conventional takeoff suits urban starts, and UAE money flows. Vertical fights uphill after 2024 scares but gained traction with UK cert help and NYC buzz. All three eye mid-2026 revenue, but none solved power yet. eVTOLs gulp kilowatts. And as we noted above, no utility can yet provide multiports with the energy needed.
Regulations aren’t static and evolve over time. From EB105 to now EB105a, we eagerly anticipate EB105b. The FAA’s new AAM rules demand cyber-secure systems my last piece covered. Supply chains? Battery prices dropped and rare earth minerals are finding substitutes. Energy? No one’s built a vertiport yet with dedicated microgrids or SMR tie-ins. This will happen eventually.
No crystal ball here. Joby probably touches revenue first—Q3 2026 if certifications align. Archer follows in high-density spots like LA. Vertical needs flawless execution. BETA continues to quietly move ahead shying from the limelight. Still, watch these instead of flight hours:
- Vertiport power pacts (Skyports, Atlantic, Avika Sky deals)
- FAA conformity tests (real ops gate)
- Energy pilots (microreactors? Grid batteries?)
AAM scales on infrastructure, not prototypes. Predictions entertain, but resilient power and security decide winners. I’ve said it before: flying cars need nuclear backbone.
What’s your 2026 bet? Drop it in comments.
Listen to The Ways We Move podcast for more AAM deep dives.